What every Twin Cities home will really sell for, and your room to negotiate

Likely sells for is predicted from how 20,000+ Twin Cities homes that closed in the last year sold against their last asking price. The inputs are what a listing shows while it is for sale: days listed, how many times and how far the price was cut, whether it was relisted, its ask against the records value below, area, price band, type, season, the listing's own words and HOA. Each input's effect is measured, not guessed. Room to negotiate is the ask minus that price; red means homes like it sell over their ask.

Records say it's worth is the evidence: the middle of up to three estimates, each a join on public records you can check.

• County, corrected. The county's assessed market value × the median sale-to-assessment ratio of the 30 nearest recorded sales at a similar assessed value.
• Comparable sales, adjusted like an appraiser. The six most similar homes that closed nearby, each brought to this month with the area's price index and adjusted for every difference (size, baths, garage, basement, lot, age, location, condition) at rates measured from that area's own sales. Half that, half the same sales read against their county values.
• Last sale, brought forward. The last recorded deed (if 2+ years ago) × how much that county's prices have moved since.

Condition. Listing words were measured against what those homes sold for: "sold as-is" closed a median 21% under comparable sales, "needs work" 20%, "investor / cash" 19%, a renovation euphemism ("ready for renovation") 14%. The comps adjust for it, and so do the county and last-sale estimates, which never see inside. When the public record says a house needs work (vacant-building lists and cases, unfixed violations), the estimates become worth-as-is with the ratio measured from flips: heavy work 0.46 (113 flips), light 0.75 (308).

Gap unexplained (amber) means the ask is 30%+ under every records estimate and nothing on record or in the listing says why. Homes like that still sold near their ask: usually condition we can't see.

The block map. Every lot within about 150 m of the home, drawn as a diagram and shaded by what the county appraises it at: per finished square foot by default, so a big house doesn't just read as valuable, or the total. The colour breaks are the fifths of the lots in that frame, so bright means high for this block. Shops, offices and apartments are hatched, with the businesses on them from Overture Places. Square feet come from the county file; Hennepin publishes none, so Minneapolis lots use the city assessor's 2025 file and Hennepin's suburbs open on total value. Condo units stacked on one lot show as one lot at the median unit. Recent sales are the county's last recorded deed since 2022 over $30k.

Agree is 100% minus the spread of how far the ask sits below each records estimate; a spread of 25 points scores 0%.

Not ranked: homes under contract, lots and land, teardowns, new builds the assessment hasn't caught, condo units that couldn't be matched to their own parcel, co-ops, multi-parcel listings, auctions and mobile homes. Listings from Realtor.com; parcels, assessments and deeds from the seven counties via MetroGIS; permits from Minneapolis and Saint Paul.